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Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Sorry for the lack of posts, new post in a few days

Sorry for the lack of posts lately. I had an accident and I was hospitalized for some time, but I am recovering now, so I'll resume posting in a few days.

Thursday, September 01, 2005

CNBC's raging bull

An article about Jim Cramer's Mad Money (thanks to TraderMike for the link).

CNBC's raging bull
By Matea Gold, Times Staff Writer
August 29, 2005
ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS, N.J. — Stumble across Jim Cramer's show on CNBC and you may think you've come upon a music video featuring a balding, manic businessman.

It's "Mad Money With Jim Cramer," the former hedge fund manager's high-octane hourlong take on the world of stocks.

His fans track his advice with cult-like devotion, jumping to place orders for stocks as soon as he mentions them. Professional day traders have taken notice as well.

The result is a Wall Street phenomenon now known as the "Cramer effect:" The day after a stock gets a mention on "Mad Money," its price shoots up, at least temporarily, and its trading volume soars.

"It's amazing," said Damon Southward, manager of trader content on, an investor news service that began reporting Cramer's picks to subscribers a few months ago. "You see stocks that literally trade several times their average volume in reaction to Cramer."
Read further: CNBC's raging bull

Today's Data

Personal Income +0.3% vs +1.0% +0.5% ( correction) consensus
Personal Spending +1.0% vs +1.0% consensus
Initial Claims 320K vs 315K consensus

Wednesday, August 31, 2005

Trading Through Katrina

Trading Through Katrina
By Alan Farley Contributor
8/31/2005 8:55 AM EDT
"Hurricane Monday" gave traders their most volatile session since the London bombing in early July. Going into the morning, I started a diary to illustrate how I measured the risks and opportunities triggered by the event. This exercise will show you my thought processes when a quiet Monday gets turned upside down by bad news.

7:14 a.m. EDT: I'm at my trading screen. Katrina is down in size overnight. My weather graphics show the eye headed straight toward New Orleans. Crude oil opened Sunday near $71 and dropped off to $70 immediately, It's now hovering about 50 cents below this "round number" as traders gauge the storm's impact to the supply chain.


9:44 a.m. EDT: Halliburton (HAL:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) is showing the biggest jump (up almost 4%) of all the energy stocks I'm watching. That's makes sense. Globex futures are trying to fill the opening gap. This isn't the right time for a big reversal, so I'm looking for renewed selling pressure once the market shakes out the short-sellers.
Read further: Trading Through Katrina

Microsoft plans telephone service

Microsoft plans telephone service

August 31, 2005
Microsoft is preparing to enable computer users to make a normal phone call from their PC.

The computer giant has increased its presence in the fast-growing internet phone sector by purchasing leading player Teleo for an undisclosed sum.

Yahoo is also in the process of introducing such a system, after it bought internet phone company Dialpad two months ago.
I am sure that Google is also planning to include PC-to-phone calls to their Talk program in the near future.

Read further:
BBC: Microsoft plans telephone service

See also:
Talking about Google Talk and Skype

Tuesday, August 30, 2005

Talim, Forecast to Become a Supertyphoon, Heads Toward Taiwan

Do we see another spike in stocks that tend to jump on typhoons, hurricanes etc when the typhoon reaches Taiwan?

Talim, Forecast to Become a Supertyphoon, Heads Toward Taiwan
August 30, 2005
Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Typhoon Talim is strengthening and may become a supertyphoon as it moves across the Pacific Ocean in the general direction of the northern coast of Taiwan, according to the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's Web site.

Winds are expected to strengthen to 250 kph later today with gusts as high as 304 kph, the center said. That would make Talim, which means sharp, or cutting edge, in Tagalog, the language of the Philippines, a Category 5 storm under the Saffir-Simpson scale, or a supertyphoon under Pacific rankings.
Read further:
Bloomberg: Talim, Forecast to Become a Supertyphoon, Heads Toward Taiwan

See also:
Today: Katrina and Oil

Comparing the Two Indian Internet Stocks REDF and SIFY

The Internet Stock Blog writes:
Look at this chart, and ask yourself why there’s such divergence in performance between these stocks [follow the link below to see the chart]...

Some (mutually exclusive) possibilities:
  • The REDF chart suggests that the stock has run up on sudden momentum, not fundamentals. In the longer run, the two stocks track each other relatively well.
  • REDF suddenly outperformed SIFY because REDF turned profitable in Q2, whereas SIFY is still losing money (including on a cash-flow basis)
  • REDF is a fundamentally better business than SIFY. Its revenue growth in the latest quarter was 53% in Q2, verus 31% for SIFY. More important, the Internet content business (REDF is a portal) should have far higher margins and operating leverage than SIFY’s corporate and retail Internet access business.
Final quick thought: If SIFY controls a large network of Internet cafes, can’t it make its own portal and services the default on the PC its customers use?
Read further:
The Internet Stock Blog: Comparing the Two Indian Internet Stocks REDF and SIFY

Monday, August 29, 2005

Stocks to Watch: ATYT

ATI Technologies (ATYT) was halted just a little ago. News pending.

Update (August 29, 2005 4:26 PM):
ATI Tech lowers Q4 revenue guidance.

Update (August 29, 2005 4:34 PM):
ATYT revenue guidance for Q4: $465-480M, compared to the expected range of $550-580M provided earlier; Reuters cosensus $559M.
Despite ATYT is already at low historical levels, it will still gap down after the stock is opened for trading.

Update (August 29, 2005 4:55 PM):
ATYT down by 12%. Ouch.

Today: Katrina and Oil

Today, Hurricane-related stocks in motion, see note below. High crude oil price is also affecting stock market.
09:03 Gapping Up

Hurricane-related stock moving higher on Katrina hitting New Orleans: ABIX +26%, TAYD +15%, IPII +13%.... Small cap energy plays running on Katrina: BDCO +15%, NGAS +13%, FUEL +13%, ABLE +9.4%, CNR +9.3%, ROYL +8%, IVAN +8%, GW +6%, Large cap energy also moving: SU +7%, SII +7%, CHK +4.6%, PTF +4%, VLO +3.3%, BP +3.1%, HAL +3%, FRO +3%, COP +2.6%... Alternative energy/fuel cell stocks also moving in part on Katrina: CPST +15% (also First Albany upgrade; tgt $6), MCEL +13% (also awarded Phase II funding), ENER +3.5%... Other News: NXXI +49% (FDA approves claim), NDC +7.3% (to be acquired by PSTI), MUSE +6% (Deutsche upgrade; $9 tgt), JOYG +3% (to join S&P 400), HD +2.6% (hurricane), LOW +2% (same), BMHC +2.7% (same).

Sunday, August 28, 2005

The Power of Margins

The Power of Margins
by David Meier (TMF HumbleServant)
August 17, 2005
If you want an edge in investing, you have to be able to think beyond the usual.

Traditionally, margins represent the efficiency by which companies capture portions of sales dollars. As an analyst, I find myself looking at small changes in margins and wondering what is going on. But that focus is too narrow. Margins can provide much more information.

Margins are important. But how you use margin information is more important to your investing success. So don't stay on the surface when analyzing margins. Your portfolio will thank you for it later.
Read further: The Power of Margins

Thursday, August 25, 2005

Swing Trading vs. Scalping: The Pros And Cons

Swing Trading vs. Scalping: The Pros And Cons
By TradingMarkets Research
Wednesday August 24, 11:21 am ET
The smaller a timeframe chart, the more random price action appears to be. The further one dials out a view to larger charts, the clearer price action movement becomes. That is fundamentally true because the action slows down. It is easier to hit a slow-pitch softball than major league fastball. Right or right? Get real good at hitting a major league fastball (along with a few other skills) and profit potential there is enormous. But how many new baseball players are truly able to do that?

Scalp trading successfully requires THE GREATEST degree of focus on charts, speed of decision making, personal discipline, everything that is necessary for success.
Read further:
Yahoo! Finance: Swing Trading vs. Scalping: The Pros And Cons

See also:
My Trading Room: Link about Scalping Vs. Swing Trading