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Wednesday, June 29, 2005

How to Make Decisions

Michael (Trader Mike) has found a great article from Fortune about trading. Barney Gimbel has interviewed a derivatives trader, Simon Yates (Managing Director, Equity Derivatives, Credit Suisse First Boston).
When you see a trader panic, you can be pretty sure that for the next few hours, he's going to lose money.

I supervise about 23 people, and we can trade $1 billion a day. My goal is to make money 52% of the time. I can make the right call half the time by flipping a coin; a good trader does a little better. Successful traders don't spend much time regretting decisions or going back over things. If a decision turned out to be wrong, so what? Move on. So when you have to make a quick decision and you know that there's a good chance it will be wrong—the worst thing you can possibly do is sit there and panic and hope. You have to be decisive—go on and do it.

You can't wait until you have absolute confirmation. You're looking to get enough information to think that you probably have detected something, and based on that, you make your trades.
Read further:
Trader Mike: Fortune Magazine on Decision Making
Fortune: How I Make Decisions

5 Comments:

Anonymous PENNY STOCKS said...

Make a decision requires thinking deep thought.

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