Is Google the next eBay?

Seth Godin writes that Google is launching video hosting in connection with Google payments.

If Google (GOOG) is able to introduce new features to the market, then the rally can continue (this is how hypes work, isn't it? Yes, I agree, that Google is definitely not an usual hype, but the price is far away off the fundamentals). I think if Google missed earnings even slightly, it will stop the rally immediately.

Look at the eBay (EBAY) chart below, I think it's similar to Google story. eBay managed to rally more than 2 years from $13 to $59, but then crashed on earnings report and gapped down 16%, currently it's trading at $33, nearly 50% below all time high.

Briefing.com on January 19, 2005:

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.33 per share, $0.01 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.34; revenues rose 44.3% year/year to $935.8 mln vs the $934.4 mln consensus. Company issues downside guidance for Q1 (Mar), sees EPS of $0.34-0.35 vs. Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.40 on revs of $1.01-1.03 bln, consensus $1.05 bln; for Q2 sees EPS of $0.34-0.35 vs. Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.38 on revs of $1.025-1.04 bln, consensus $1.047; for Q3 sees EPS of $0.35-0.36 vs. Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.38 on revs of $1.035-1.06 bln, consensus $1.07 bln; for Q4 sees EPS of $0.43-0.44 vs. Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.46 on revs of $1.18-1.22 bln, consensus $1.24 bln

Not too bad report actually, but eBay had a free fall after this.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

See also:
Seth Godin: Google, video and podcasting